We are just one day away from the most anticipated Commodore football of my lifetime, and it is time to put the Cincinnati Bearcats under the microscope. It took a good bit of research to get this all together folks, so I hope you enjoy it.
Zach Collaros was really the first guy I wanted to analyze. A lot has been said of how he is a huge difference maker for Cincinnati, especially from Bearcat fans who seem to think they can blow us out of the water because they have their recently injured quarterback playing. Nevertheless, no one can deny that he was playing at a very high level before his injury. Collaros’ completion percentage was 63.4% in the nine games he played, which is only behind AJ McCarron in terms of the quarterbacks we have played. However, not everything was coming as easily as that particular stat implies. He had one game, against North Carolina State, that drastically set increased his total completion percentage because, for lack of a better word, he did beast in that one. His actual QB rating was below guys like McCarron, Murray, Bray and even Brantley that we played on the season. And while most of those guys had a decent or good game against us, at least we know we have played multiple quarterbacks better than Collaros in the passing game. Also, one can only expect the mobility of Collaros will suffer from his ankle injury. While he has had a lot of time for rehab, in-game action is always an adjustment for someone who has not played in well over a month. After all this investigation, I was curios why Bearcat fans were so high on this guy who, while quite solid, is not quite what he is presented to be. Then I found out why. Compared to Minchie Legaux, who took over when Collaros was injured, he is a miracle worker. Legaux, meanwhile, was awful. It makes me think that their receiving corps is really not threatening at all, but Collaros causes them to overachieve. This explains why his numbers are not breathtaking, why Legaux’s numbers were terrible, and why so many think Collaros is great.
One Cincinnati player that I cannot argue against is Isiah Pead. The senior running back has numbers nearly identical to Zac Stacy in terms of yardage (1110) and touchdowns (14). Where he does not match Stacy in terms of yards per carry, he makes up for it with his receiving yards and touchdowns. So do not be surprised at all if they pass it to Pead out of the backfield. He has been slowed a little in the past three games, but he should return back to form with the return of Collaros. Pead ran for a total of 420 yards in the last four games he had with his top quarterback. His total numbers were good enough for Pead to be called the Big East Offensive Player of the Year, most notably over Geno Smith of West Virginia. It has been common for the Big East voters to call upon running backs in that award though, as running backs have won the last four Offensive Player of the Year awards.
Cincinnati also boast the sixth best rushing defense in the Football Bowl Subdivision. Now, while this is outstanding regardless of circumstance, something needs to be said on the level of competition. And no, this is not an ignorant remark on Big East football or even the Bearcats’ opponents for that matter, but it is a remark on how well their opponents run the ball. Of all the schools on the Cincinnati schedule, only one team was in the top 65 nationally in running the football. However, it can be said that the one team that was effective at running the ball, South Florida, did not gain a bunch of yardage on the ground in their game against Cincinnati. Still, the Bulls did pass for over 400 yards behind mobile quarterback BJ Daniels, who also happened to lead his team in rushing that game. This tells me that maybe the Bearcats struggle with quarterbacks that run, because Daniels was the only mobile signal caller that Cincinnati played all season long. It goes without saying that, as long as Jordan Rodgers is under center, this possible weakness plays in our favor.
Among all those poor rushing teams on the Cincinnati schedule, only two teams had a 100 yard rusher. South Florida was not one of those teams, as their quarterback accounts for a lot of team rushing yards as well. The two teams that had major rushers in the backfield were Syracuse and Connecticut. Antwon Bailey, running back for the Orange, had over 130 rushing yards in that game on pretty consistent running. Lyle McCombs, who we all know from our game against Connecticut, really struggled that game against the Bearcats. Regardless, Zac Stacy will be the best running back that Cincinnati has played all season. Bailey and McCombs match up well stat wise, but Stacy plays under a better system with Jordan Rodgers and his running ability opening things up. Not to mention, Stacy is really on a role. With Rodgers and Stacy both being a threat, our rushing attack could be dangerous. And it is not as if the Bearcats have never torched. Just look back three games ago, when they gave up 200 yards rushing to Rutgers running back Jawan Jamison. And that was Jamison’s only 1000+ rushing game of the season, as opposed to Stacy who has had six.
No deep research is needed to see how terrible the Cincinnati pass defense is though. A quick look at their stat sheets prove they are the the 106th worst team in the entire nation at defending the pass. Granted, that stat is a little skewed because of the fact that opposing teams were forced to pass, but the fact remains that they are bad defending the pass. Cincinnati still ranks outside the top fifty in opposing passer rating, despite the majority of their oppositions being forced to pass the ball. So even when the Bearcat defense knew what opponents were doing, they still struggled. And who did they allow the most yards against? South Florida mobile quarterback DJ Daniels. And that is true, despite the fact that the Bearcats played even better passers like Tyler Bray and Geno Smith. Interesting, very interesting.
While I do have my doubts against the Cincinnati defense as a whole, there is absolutely no doubting defensive tackle Derek Wolfe. You better believe he was a major cause of their stellar rush defense numbers as well, as he led the Big East in tackles for loss and was twelfth in the nation in sacks. All those numbers made Wolfe earn the title as the Big East Defensive Player of the Year. In case you have not been paying attention, he is the second Bearcat so far to earn a player of the year honor. Interestingly enough, Cincinnati coach Butch Jones won Big East Coach of the Year after improving his team greatly from their four-win season in 2010.
Well, that just about wraps this one up. I will be attending the game, and it goes without saying that I am very excited. I was at the 2008 Music City Bowl too, so maybe that is good luck. I am too tired and need to rest too bad to bad to proofread though, so please excuse any errors. Good luck to the players, and I hope anyone going to the game has a safe ride over there.
Go ‘Dores!
